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Spatial Distribution of Urbanization and Agricultural Suitability: A Historical Global Analysis

發(fā)布時間:2015-01-21 瀏覽:次

講座題目:Spatial Distribution of Urbanization and Agricultural Suitability: A Historical Global Analysis

講座人:李曉飛 博士

主持人:史耀疆 教授

講座時間:09:30

講座日期:2015-1-21

地點:長安校區(qū) 文瀾樓C段3512室

主辦單位:教育實驗經(jīng)濟研究所

講座內容: A conventional viewin the narrative economic history literature believes that, the geographical distributionof urbanization was highly dependent on local agricultural land quality inearly periods, while this dependency relationship is much weaker in moderntimes. This study quantitatively assesses this historical trend of man'schanging relation to land. We examine the global urban population in grid cellsof 0.5 degree longitude and latitude resolution, and relates it to anagricultural suitability index by the spatial negative binomial regressionmodel. The model also controls for other physical geographic factors, spatialinterdependence between urban areas, and region fixed effects. The estimationis repeated at different points in time from 1000 to 2000 CE through a multiplecross-sectional regressions setup. The results show that the correlationbetween urban population and agricultural suitability first increased in earlyhistory (before 1500 CE), and then decreased over time. Thefirst-rising-then-falling pattern persists to various robustness checks. Itprovides empirical evidence for the declining importance of fertile lands indetermining locations of urbanization as technologies and societies developedover time.